2026 지방선거

Summary of predictions for the June 3, 2026 local elections (9th nationwide simultaneous local elections) The election will be held on Wednesday, June 3, and will elect metropolitan mayors/governors (17 city/provincial governors), basic local government heads, metropolitan/basic council members, and superintendents of education. As of now (end of April 2026), a landslide victory for the Democratic Party of Korea (ruling party)is expected, while the People Power Party (opposition party) is projected to face a very difficult election.

1. Overall Election Outlook (Focus on Metropolitan Mayors/Governors)

Democratic Party of Korea stronghold regions: 14-15 places (majority out of 17 total)

People Power Party stronghold/contested regions: 2-3 places (Gyeongbuk, parts of Daegu, possibility of parts of Busan/Gyeongnam)

In recent comprehensive public opinion polls (March-April), Democratic Party candidates are significantly ahead of the People Power Party in 9 out of 10 places, and the possibility of the Democratic Party sweeping 15 placesis also being mentioned.

(Data: Comprehensive public opinion polls from March-April by Korea Gallup, Realmeter, Jo Won C&I, etc.)

2. Why is the Democratic Party so strong?

President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating: 65-69% (highest since inauguration, April Realmeter, Gallup, NBS surveys). The 'government stability argument' is strongly at play in the early stages of the administration.

Party approval rating: Democratic Party 48-50% vs. People Power Party 15-31% (People Power Party at its lowest level since its founding).

Opposite of the 2022 local elections: At that time, the People Power Party (ruling party) won, but now the Democratic Party is the ruling party + high presidential approval rating.

Swing voters/Independents: Trend leaning towards the Democratic Party. 20-30% of independents are a last-minute variable, but the current trend favors the Democratic Party.

3. Key Observation Points

Seoul Mayor: The biggest point of interest. Oh Se-hoon's bid for a third term vs. Democratic candidate (Jung Won-oh, etc.). Currently, the Democratic Party is significantly ahead, but conservative consolidation is the key.

Daegu Mayor: Kim Boo-kyum (Dem.) is a variable. The possibility of retaking TK is boosting the Democratic Party's morale.

Fate of the People Power PartyIf more than 15 places are lost, a major accountability and reorganization within the party is inevitable. A “cataclysmic” crisis.

Simultaneous by-elections: By-elections for National Assembly members are also held, affecting the overall political landscape.

Variables: Candidate unification, nomination controversies, voter turnout (usually around 50% for local elections), last-minute issues (economy, livelihoods).

Overall forecast: It is highly likely that the Democratic Party will win most of the metropolitan mayoralties (14-15 seats) and gain an advantage in local councils. This is expected to serve as strong 'mid-term evaluation' support for the Lee Jae-myung administration. However, with only about 5 weeks left until the election, there could be some variables depending on the final candidate confirmations and changes in public sentiment.