돈經濟

The fact that Korea's current account surplus has surpassed both Germany and Japan, often called the home of manufacturing, is more than just a numerical record; it symbolically demonstrates how the Korean economy's fundamental structure has changed. According to IMF major country statistics recorded in the Bank of Korea's Economic Statistics System, Korea's current account surplus reached $116.63 billion in the second quarter of 2026. During the same period, Germany's $52.28 billion and Japan's $50.62 billion combined amounted to only $102.89 billion, putting Korea $13.74 billion ahead. This is the first time this has happened since 1996, when statistics for all three countries became available, and it ranks Korea second among 36 major countries, after China. For the cumulative first half of the year, Korea also maintained its second-place position with $191.01 billion, and for the two months of July and August, it exceeded the combined total of Germany and Japan with $88.19 billion. The IMF projects an annual surplus of around $421.9 billion for this year, anticipating that the increase will be the largest among 190 countries. The Bank of Korea also expects the surplus to continue to exceed its initial forecast of $450 billion, driven by strong semiconductor exports.

The driving force behind this phenomenal surplus is semiconductor exports. In the second quarter of this year, semiconductor exports surged by 181.6% year-on-year to $113.89 billion, and in the third quarter, they increased by 218.7% to $148.02 billion. The rise in prices played a greater role than the increase in volume. As investment in artificial intelligence (AI) expanded, memory demand exploded, creating a structure where export value significantly increased even with the same volume sold. Semiconductors accounted for well over 40% of total cumulative exports up to September, indicating that the Korean economy's external surplus is now virtually deeply linked to the semiconductor cycle. Compared to the past, when various items such as heavy and chemical industries, petrochemicals, and automobiles contributed evenly, the qualitative nature of the surplus has significantly changed.

However, even though the country is earning so much money, the stock market presents a completely different picture. The KOSPI has fallen by over 39%, from its all-time high closing price of 9,114.55 to 5,550.30 on October 23rd. While current account surpluses and stock prices don't move in lockstep every day, the general expectation is that in the long term, they should trend in the same direction, as a surplus is ultimately money earned by companies overseas, which then translates into corporate profits. However, the reality is different. According to data from financial information provider FnGuide, the KOSPI's 12-month forward PER in late October was only 4.41x. This is even lower than the 7-8x seen during the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 COVID shock. Interestingly, if semiconductors are excluded from the calculation, the PER rises to 10.3x, which is almost identical to the past 20-year average of 10.4x. This means that companies other than semiconductors are being valued appropriately for their profit levels, while it is semiconductor stocks, with PERs of less than 3x, that are dragging down the index.

The market's skepticism about semiconductor profits is clear. The semiconductor industry has a long-standing adage: “A low PER can actually signal the peak of profits.” Due to the industry's characteristic volatility in earnings, the 'PER trap' often appears, where stock prices seem relatively cheap when performance is at its best. A prime example is SK Hynix in 2018, which recorded a record annual operating profit of 20.8 trillion won, pushing its PER down to 4.6x, only to see its stock price subsequently fall by 42%. The market is currently wary of precisely this pattern. If the current semiconductor boom is a temporary price effect driven by the AI investment frenzy, then the market is preemptively pricing in the possibility of a sharp decline in profits after they peak. The first stage for confirmation will be the third-quarter earnings announcements by SK Hynix on October 28th and Samsung Electronics on October 29th. More important than the numbers for this quarter itself will be how they present their profit outlook for next year.

The IMF also believes this trend will not last forever. Korea's current account surplus is projected to exceed $400 billion next year and until 2028, but then decrease to $295.6 billion in 2029 and $177.5 billion in 2031. This is because most of the surplus resulted from rising semiconductor prices rather than increased export volumes. If the pace of AI investment slows down, or if competitors like US Micron and Chinese Changxin Memory increase their self-sufficiency in memory procurement, prices could fall, and the surplus could shrink just as quickly. With semiconductors accounting for nearly half of total exports, this concentration simultaneously exposes the vulnerability of the Korean economy. It means that the larger the surplus, the greater the potential shock.

However, there is no need to underestimate the current achievements. The surplus created by the semiconductor supercycle clearly demonstrates Korea's position in the global supply chain. The problem lies in what comes next. Experts say that this year and next should be used as an opportunity for overdue structural adjustments and industrial diversification. They point out that the surplus capacity should be invested in new growth engines to lead beyond semiconductors, and domestic industries, which are weaker than exports, should be nurtured to strengthen the economy's safety net. The government has also stated that it will enhance the competitiveness of the service industry and expand new investment foundations in preparation for a slowdown in exports. From a household perspective, it is also risky to take on debt and expand investment based on a booming atmosphere, as leveraged investments are the most impacted if the economy suddenly cools down. Monitoring the semiconductor export growth rate in the import and export trends announced monthly by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy for several consecutive months of slowdown is also a practical way to detect signs of an economic shift.

The future of the Korean economy and stock market ultimately depends on how this semiconductor-dependent structure is managed. The current undervaluation may be a result of the market pre-reflecting future uncertainties in prices. If third-quarter earnings and next year's guidance allay market concerns and confirm earnings sustainability, the excessively low semiconductor valuation could become a catalyst for a rebound. Conversely, if there are signs of weakening price effects or intensifying competition, there is a risk that the pace of profit reduction and the extent of stock price adjustments will both increase. The fact that non-semiconductor companies are already fairly valued also means that there is room for the overall index's rise to be diversified and not solely dependent on semiconductors. However, given the significant weight of semiconductors in the overall index, the direction of semiconductor profits is still highly likely to determine the mid-term direction of the KOSPI.

Ultimately, the Korean economy is currently in a very peculiar phase. Externally, it has surpassed major manufacturing nations by recording its strongest surplus in history, but most of that surplus relies on the price cycle of a single industry. The stock market is already aware of this fact and maintains a low valuation, pre-reflecting future uncertainties. Whether this discrepancy is temporary over-caution or a rational pre-reflection will be determined by semiconductor performance and global AI investment trends over the next few quarters. In this process, how Korea reinvests the money it earns and how much it diversifies its industrial structure will be the key tasks that determine the quality of mid-to-long-term growth. A record surplus can be a source of pride, but it is also an opportunity that has bought time to prepare for the next cycle. How that opportunity is utilized will determine the future of the Korean economy and stock market.