돈經濟

After the semiconductor cycle peaked, attention has been turning to aerospace since the second half of 2026, as people seek industries that will continue to grow. If semiconductors drove the demand for AI computing, aerospace is closer to providing the security, communication, and observation infrastructure, as well as national sovereignty technology, needed for that computing to function. Even after wars end, defense spending rarely decreases, and low-orbit satellites are being reinterpreted as candidates for communication, reconnaissance, and AI data centers. Korea has entered a phase where the budget for the Korea Aerospace Administration is exceeding 1 trillion won, projected to reach 1.6 trillion won by 2027. The second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027 will be a verification period where this expectation transitions from a 'theme' to 'performance and orders.'

The industry's foundation rests on two pillars. One is defense exports, for which figures are already available. Hanwha Aerospace recorded its highest quarterly performance in Q2 2026, with consolidated sales of 9.2929 trillion won and operating profit of 1.3655 trillion won. Its land defense order backlog reached 38.3 trillion won, with approximately 75% of that being export volume. S&P projects sales of 29.9 trillion won in 2026 and 33.7 trillion won in 2027, estimating adjusted EBITDA to be between 4.9 trillion and 5.5 trillion won. With the K9 and Chunmo to Poland, followed by Redback, Middle East air defense, and localization investments in the US, the company is transforming from a 'self-propelled artillery exporter' to a 'K-defense package' provider. The other pillar is space, which is still only visible in terms of budget and schedule. The Korea Aerospace Administration's 2026 budget has been confirmed at 1.1201 trillion won, and the 2027 budget proposal has increased by 47.2% to 1.6491 trillion won. The budget for the 'Space Highway' for launch vehicles alone increased by 113.8%, from 263.2 billion won to 562.9 billion won. This budget also includes follow-up launches of Nuriho, next-generation launch vehicles, lunar exploration, and a constellation of ultra-small SAR satellites.

The key event in the second half of 2026 is the 5th launch of Nuriho. In early October, the mission is to sequentially separate micro-satellite constellations 2-6 from Goheung at an altitude of 570km, with an error margin of within 15km. The precision has increased compared to the 4th launch's 35km error, and it includes multiple separations at 35-40 second intervals. If successful, it will be evidence of regular launches at least once a year, rather than a 'one-off national project launch.' If it fails, theme-based space stocks will be immediately discounted. In the same quarter, Hanwha Aerospace is setting up a mass production system at the Suncheon Space Hub rocket manufacturing center and is transitioning the full-cycle Nuriho technology transfer received from KARI to private system integration. Approximately 950.5 billion won for next-generation launch vehicle system integration has already been secured. In the defense sector, the concentrated delivery of K9 and Chunmo in the fourth quarter supports the profit floor. In a period where the market is contemplating where to move funds withdrawn from semiconductors, a re-rating will only be maintained in the second half if 'successful launch + export delivery' occur simultaneously.

In the first half of 2027, budget execution and mass production deliveries overlap. If the 2027 budget passes the National Assembly, 75 billion won will be newly allocated for the preparation of Nuriho 7th and 8th launches, and 291.6 billion won will be reflected for the next-generation launch vehicle. This project, aiming for first-stage reuse and large-scale transport, has a roadmap of performance demonstration in 2030 and reusable landing in 2035. In the aviation sector, the initial delivery of KF-21 (estimated at 8 units) and the delivery of FA-50s to Poland and Malaysia are expected to boost KAI's sales from 5 trillion won in 2026 to 6 trillion won in 2027. In the satellite sector, the selection of operators for 40 multi-agency micro-SAR satellites, a project worth a total of 1.4223 trillion won, is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2026. Therefore, the first half of 2027 is the period when design and initial production after the contract award will be reflected in stock prices. Overseas, expectations for SpaceX's IPO are driving up multiples for low-earth orbit communication and launch services, and this spillover effect is spreading to domestic engine, satellite, and antenna stocks. Shinhan Investment Corp. has proposed an approach that bundles SpaceX and domestic launch vehicle/satellite companies into one basket for these reasons.

If we divide the promising stocks, their roles are clear.

Hanwha Aerospace is the benchmark in this sector. It is the only domestic manufacturer of medium-to-large liquid rocket engines and is in charge of the Nuri rocket's 75-ton class engine. At the same time, it is the export channel for K9, Chunmoo, Redback, and L-SAM. In early October 2026, its stock price will be around 1.07 million won, with a market capitalization of approximately 55 trillion won. Securities firms' target prices range from 1.5 million won (IBK, initiation of buy) to an average of 1.6 million won, and a simple fair value model suggests a 30% discount potential. A key feature is that defense cash flow supports space investment. Although debt will increase as capital expenditures rise to 3.5 trillion to 3.7 trillion won in 2026-2027, export margins will protect EBITDA, maintaining its credit rating (S&P A-). Weaknesses include the risk of executing localization in the US and political noise surrounding its 15.89% stake in KAI. The Fair Trade Commission has determined that there is no effective control with the current shareholding, but if regional complaints and management rights disputes are repeated during parliamentary audits, it will become a valuation discount factor.

Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) is at the intersection of system integration and finished aircraft. It has a track record of Nuri rocket final assembly, Arirang and 425 reconnaissance satellites, and next-generation medium-sized satellites, and generates aviation performance with FA-50, KF-21, and LAH. In early October 2026, its stock price will be around 130,000 won. Although 2025 was sluggish due to delays in the FA-50PL progress and LAH carryover, the momentum comes from the initial delivery of KF-21 and export trainer deliveries overlapping from 2026. After Hanwha became the second-largest shareholder, the possibility of package exports combining engines, radars, guided weapons with fighter jets, helicopters, and unmanned aerial vehicles opened up. However, if the equity dispute is consumed by 'regional livelihood complaints,' order reliability will be eroded. In satellites, KAI is forming a consortium with LIG to compete with the Hanwha Systems and Satrec Initiative alliance for the 40-unit ultra-small SAR project, making them the two dominant players.

Hanwha Systems focuses on satellite payloads, communications, and the Jeju Space Center. Its role does not overlap with its parent company's launch vehicles, leaving room for separate multiples as low-Earth orbit communication and observation data grow. LIG Nex1 (defense and aerospace) combines guided missile exports and satellite navigation with Cheongung-II and the Korean Positioning System (KPS) system integration. Large Middle Eastern exports are a variable for performance in 2026-2027. Hyundai Rotem's main business is tank exports, but it is almost the only listed company in Korea pursuing methane engines and reusable launch vehicle technology. As next-generation launch vehicles shift from kerosene to methane and reusability, the company is sensitive to news of technology demonstrations after 2027.

Among small and medium-sized companies, Satrec Initiative has the highest purity. It specializes in medium and small Earth observation satellites and, as part of the Hanwha group, is integrated into the system rather than being a subcontractor for large orders. Its revenue scale is small, leading to high volatility from a single order, and its performance is linked to launch schedules. Intellian Technologies focuses on satellite communication antennas, and AP Satellite on main bodies and low-Earth orbit communication equipment, offering leverage when SpaceX and OneWeb-type demand spreads domestically. Their stock prices react more significantly to order announcements and successful launches than to budget approvals.

A scenario for late 2026 to early 2027 is more realistic when viewed in three layers. The baseline path includes the successful 5th Nuriho launch, continued defense export deliveries, and the passage of the 2027 space budget. In this case, large-cap stocks could see a moderate re-rating commensurate with their earnings growth rate (Hanwha Aerospace revenue in the low to mid-teens, KAI recovering complete aircraft deliveries), while small and medium-sized satellite stocks would experience increased volatility around operator selection. The optimistic path involves the concretization of SpaceX's IPO schedule and additional package orders from the Middle East and Eastern Europe. As the combined order backlog of the top five defense companies is projected to reach 120 trillion won in 2026, the market could overlook the space sector's deficit period if new orders materialize. The pessimistic path includes launch failures, prolonged political disputes over KAI's stake, and delays in US local investments. Although space revenue still accounts for a smaller portion compared to defense and engines, Hanwha Aerospace's profit resilience would remain even with a failure, but the sector multiple would drop sharply.

The expression 'next leading stock' after semiconductors is only half true. Aerospace is not an industry where demand explodes in a single quarter like HBM. Order backlogs lock in 3-5 years of revenue in advance, and budgets are tied to the National Assembly and launch windows. Therefore, in the second half of 2026, events (5th launch, Q4 delivery) will sway stock prices, and in the first half of 2027, whether those events translate into revenue will determine stock prices. In terms of portfolio, a structure that centers on Hanwha Aerospace, where defense cash flow has been confirmed, and then divides the satellite proportion among KAI for KF-21 and satellite systems, Hanwha Systems and LIG for satellites and navigation, and Satrec Initiative for pure space betting, is closer to the sector definition. Stocks bought solely on launch success and stocks with confirmed export backlogs are different assets, even if they are both aerospace.