책冊

The original title of 'Destined for War' written by Graham Allison is 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?'. He says he has discovered the basic structure of the dynamics that lead to war through the records of 16 wars over the past 500 years. And the cause is what he calls the 'Thucydides's Trap'. The Greek historian Thucydides explained that the Peloponnesian War, which devastated ancient Greece, broke out because of the fear of the ruling power Sparta over the rise of the emerging power Athens. Graham Allison evaluated that this situation has occurred 16 times in the past 500 years, and 12 of them have ultimately resulted in war. Graham Allison says that the relationship between the rapidly rising China and the United States is the 17th case, and explains why the 'Thucydides's Trap' is the best lens for understanding the relationship between the United States and China. Historians and sociologists try to look into the future through the past. The future is unpredictable, so if past cases are repeated, the judgment is that the future will go the same way. But will the United States and China really go to war? Can a country with a population of 1.3 billion and the world's largest nuclear power confront each other for hegemony? Rather, both of them will perish, and the Earth will be destroyed.

 

I hope that the possibility of a US-China war will be one of the 4 cases where war is avoided rather than one of the 12 cases where war occurs. When the United States was rising in the early 20th century, Britain was preoccupied with the struggle for hegemony with Germany in Europe and neglected the rise of the United States. In the late 20th century, the confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union ultimately did not lead to war, resulting in the collapse of the Soviet Union. War is the last resort. The two world wars in the early 20th century have shown the possibility of the extinction of mankind. However, the vast historical materials analyzed by Graham Allison have alerted many people. The fact that the United States and China should not fall into the "Thucydides Trap" and start a war. Graham Allison focused on the "Thucydides Trap", in which Thucydides described in his "History of the Peloponnesian War" that war naturally occurs when a rising power threatens the position of the existing hegemon. He warns that the relationship between the United States and China, the 17th case, is at risk of falling into the "Thucydides Trap". In this book, the author objectively evaluates the possibility of a conflict between the United States and China, and presents in-depth perspectives on the role of the Korean Peninsula, the dynamics of international politics, and diplomatic dilemmas.

 

China is not only the largest country in the world, but also the biggest driving force for global economic growth and the largest country in history. The scale and speed of China's growth is beyond our imagination. The Chinese economy, accounting for about 18% of global GDP, is doubling in size every 7 years, a rate three times faster than that of the United States. China is not just threatening the United States, but has already surpassed it in many areas such as manufacturing, consumption, and market size. China's growth is taking place in almost all fields, including construction, transportation, education, healthcare, computers, telecommunications, science, and technological innovation. Despite these tangible figures, the United States is reluctant to acknowledge that China, which was once easy to handle, has overnight become a giant. They also try to downplay China's growth by pointing out the slowdown and attributing it to imitation and mass production. However, even with the slowdown, China's economic growth rate is still 6-7%, which is much higher than the 2.1% "recovery" rate of the United States and other countries.

The United States is engaged in an all-out struggle with China without realizing that the balance of power is being reshaped. Graham Allison warns that the more intense this structural tension becomes, the more a small spark can trigger a major clash. If the United States continues its foolish optimism and complacency in its economic relations so far, the possibility of war is high. The first step to creating a peaceful US-China relationship is to properly recognize China's rise. The author says that to deeply understand this, it is necessary to look at the case of the "Thucydides Trap".

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