단상斷想

The Democratic Party is completely missing the essence of the current struggle. The impeachment of Supreme Court Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae is not an option, but a prerequisite. The attitude of trying to create an appearance with a parliamentary investigation, gauge public opinion, and balance internal party dynamics is not caution, but an act of giving the opponent time for their survival strategy. The judiciary and the conservative establishment have already calculated and executed all their cards to survive. Yet, the Democratic Party is still tied down by the word 'backlash' and is only looking around. If the Lee Jae-myung government is to survive and maintain the possibility of the next presidential election, there is no time to play the role of a nobleman.

The opponent has already set the stage. Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon's acquittal in the appellate trial for his political funds law violation case was not a typical trial outcome. That ruling, which overturned the first trial's sentence of loss of mayoral office, created 'room to survive' for conservative forces. At the same time, an additional arrest warrant was issued for Kim Keon-hee just before the expiration of her detention, keeping her incarcerated until the end of the year. It's a strategy to hold key figures to prevent backlash, while giving breathing room to those who can survive.

The judiciary and the conservative establishment are calculating without a single flaw. The dual mechanism of securing survival space with an acquittal and blocking the pretext for backlash with extended detention is already in operation. In contrast, the Democratic Party cannot even gather internal opinions in one place and is wasting time by worrying about impeachment backlash and suggesting a step-by-step parliamentary investigation. In a game where the opponent has already finished their brain-play, the Democratic Party is still talking about 'the process of persuasion and consent'.

It may seem reasonable, to some extent, for CEO Kim Min-seok to emphasize national consensus and persuasion. However, at this point, that logic is completely out of touch with reality. The issues surrounding Supreme Court Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae have already accumulated sufficiently: the prolonged vacancy due to the refusal to re-nominate a Supreme Court Justice, his refusal to take an oath and unauthorized departure during the parliamentary audit, suspicions regarding the execution of his business promotion expenses and cash incentives, and the controversy over political neutrality during the remand process of then-candidate Lee Jae-myung's case. With the Cho Kuk Innovation Party already having disclosed a second impeachment motion and demanding joint promotion, the Democratic Party's step back, stating, “We will first uncover the suspicions through a parliamentary investigation,” is merely buying time for the other side.

If the structure allowing Supreme Court Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae to exercise judicial personnel authority in February next year remains unchanged, there is a high probability that the direction of judicial reform and trials related to insurrection that the Lee Jae-myung administration intends to pursue will already be largely determined. The longer the Supreme Court Justice vacancy persists, the more that void will be filled by the influence of the Cho Hee-dae system, and that influence will in turn be reproduced through the judiciary and personnel structure. If that time is not secured, all subsequent discussions will inevitably proceed on an already tilted playing field.

The fear of an impeachment backlash is understandable. However, a backlash is a matter of time. While the approval ratings of moderates and conservatives may temporarily fluctuate, if the perception that the judiciary has abandoned political neutrality accumulates, the impact could actually work in the opposite direction. The fact that some public opinion polls already show majority support for impeachment, with approval even among moderates, demonstrates that the public views this issue not as a confrontation between ruling and opposition parties, but as a matter of accountability for judicial power.

Not acting by preemptively calculating the backlash means unilaterally putting oneself in a disadvantageous position when the opponent has already finished their calculations and put them into action. Public opinion is not fixed. Over time, changes in support for moderates and conservatives naturally adjust. However, the time it takes for the structural superiority of judicial power to solidify is difficult to reverse. The approach of building up suspicions through a parliamentary investigation overlooks the fact that the opponent can further solidify their structure during the process of building up. As suspicions become clearer, the justification for impeachment grows, but if personnel appointments and trial directions are already decided in the interim, the justification will only serve as ex post facto rationalization.

The struggle between vested interests within the party is also a problem. The division between hardliners and cautious factions, and the intervention of factional power struggles, leading to a fragmented party line, becomes the best gift for the opponent. This fight is not the place to appear cautious by balancing internal party dynamics. The opponent is already using both acquittal and extended detention simultaneously 'to survive.' While the Democratic Party delays its decision, citing public opinion and internal balance, the judiciary gains time to further solidify its domain.

For the Lee Jae-myung administration to survive and maintain the possibility of the next presidential election, it needs to consolidate internal party opinions and make a decisive move. While time is spent adjusting the interests of factions, the judicial establishment converts that time into its structural advantage. The longer internal disputes continue, the more external decisions are delayed, and the more they are delayed, the more favorable the opponent's calculations become.

A parliamentary investigation is a means, not an end. The impeachment of Supreme Court Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae must be set as a prerequisite, securing the political and institutional significance of controlling judicial appointments and the flow of trials for a certain period through the effect of suspension from duty. Although there are opinions from the legal community that the possibility of impeachment being upheld by the Constitutional Court is low, what is more important than that itself is to stop the opponent's movements at this very moment. Suspension from duty is not just a symbol; it is a practical mechanism that blocks the exercise of personnel rights and the formation of judicial panels for a certain period. If that mechanism is not activated, even the suspicions uncovered by the parliamentary investigation will only remain as ex post facto matters. What Representative Kim Min-seok needs to do is clear. He must not stop at saying that all methods and routes have begun to be discussed, but must unite opinions within the party and make the decision to actually implement the impeachment.

Changes in the approval ratings of moderates and conservatives will be resolved by time. However, the time when the structural superiority of judicial power solidifies is difficult to reverse. What the Democratic Party should show now is not caution, being mindful of public opinion, but fierce determination for survival. In a situation where the opponent is already playing mind games, merely being mindful is not a strategy but a reservation for defeat. The survival of the Lee Jae-myung government and the possibility of the next presidential election depend on this decision now. Representative Kim Min-seok should not delay any longer. The impeachment of Cho Hee-dae is a prerequisite. Do not fear the backlash. Time will adjust the approval ratings of moderates and conservatives, but the structure of judicial power will solidify if it does not move now. The Democratic Party must wake up. There is no more time to just calculate when the opponent has already finished their calculations.