단상斷想

The situation is grave. The forces of rebellion are gradually feeding their hunger on the falling approval ratings of the Democratic Party of Korea. Meanwhile, those who support President Lee Jae-myung are scattering. The voices for clearing out the rebellion, which once filled the squares, are also fading due to disappointment in President Lee.

Nevertheless, President Lee shows no sign of backing down on issues that concern those around him, such as SNS politics, live broadcasts of cabinet meetings, and the attendance of the head of the Central Investigation Agency at cabinet meetings. He is more vehemently asserting his position and carrying out a public persuasion campaign through SNS.

As the government approaches its 1 year and 5 month mark, the Blue House seems to be suffering from an end-of-term illness. It is failing to lead the political situation, and red lights are flashing on the reform front in many places. Reform tasks such as virtual asset taxation and a comprehensive survey of farmland also seem to be wavering, caught up in situational arguments.

Moreover, the political environment surrounding President Lee is deteriorating. This carries the potential to cause a chronic lame-duck phenomenon, and a prolonged slump in approval ratings throughout the administration could isolate the Blue House and President Lee Jae-myung from public sentiment, like a kind of Galapagos.

First, the most serious external variable is the judiciary's blatant political intervention. Presiding Judge Koo Hoe-geun of the Seoul High Court's Criminal Division 7 showed no fear of taking the 'sole blame' for Oh Se-hoon's acquittal, releasing the shackles that had bound the ankles of a prominent conservative presidential hopeful.

Despite concrete evidence presented, such as the 21 million won paid by Oh Se-hoon's supporter Kim Han-jung and conversations indicating that the Oh Se-hoon camp was aware of this, Judge Koo did not recognize it as evidence of guilt. It was, quite literally, a verdict at the judge's discretion.

The ability to deliver such a blatant and transparent verdict so shamelessly is a kind of declaration of war, clearly showing the judiciary's collective will to resist the strong oppression by the Lee Jae-myung administration and the Democratic Party against Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae. The common consensus among many in the legal community is that if Oh Se-hoon had not been a prominent conservative presidential hopeful, this case would have been ruled guilty.

The judiciary, fueled by malice, opens the path to the presidency for Oh Se-hoon.

The judiciary is currently seething with anger. The more it's cornered, the more it seems ready to turn around and bite rather than run away. A little over a month before the presidential election, Cho Hee-dae tried to bring down Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung for violating the Public Official Election Act (spreading false information), but failed due to strong public backlash. However, this time, as if determined not to fail, he acquitted Oh Se-hoon completely, opening the door for him to run in the next presidential election.

At this point, the ruling party's path is to swiftly complete the impeachment of Supreme Court Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae. However, the Democratic Party retreated a step to a parliamentary investigation at its general meeting on the 27th. While some observe this is due to concerns about a public backlash, others interpret it as a reluctance to pave the way for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, which would be the icebreaker for Cho Hee-dae's impeachment, leading them to shrink back to a parliamentary investigation.

The Democratic Party is not in a position to leisurely play around with parliamentary investigations right now. Cho Hee-dae and the judiciary's vested interests are systematically preparing to shake the Lee Jae-myung administration. Cho Hee-dae will never re-recommend Supreme Court justices. He will torment Lee Jae-myung until the end and then leave his position. The backlash and resistance of the legal establishment, hidden under the guise of judicial independence, should never be underestimated.

The more the Lee Jae-myung administration persecutes the judiciary, the more excited the judiciary will clearly become and play tricks. The implicit alliance between the judiciary and conservatives has been further solidified by Oh Se-hoon's acquittal. If the People Power Party wins a landslide in the next general election or even achieves two consecutive victories in the presidential election, judicial reforms such as prosecutorial reform and increasing the number of Supreme Court justices are highly likely to become futile.

The possibility of an underground alliance and cooperation between the judiciary and the People Power Party, premised on a 'return to square one' for reforms, cannot be ruled out. Despite the Democratic Party's current number of seats being the optimal condition to complete strong reforms, its recent political actions are going beyond disappointment and heading towards utter failure. Given the current political situation, the Democratic Party's victory in the next general election is by no means guaranteed.

Therefore, the impeachment of Cho Hee-dae must be pushed through in a unified manner to bring it to a decisive conclusion. After all, whether one is criticized for impeaching Cho Hee-dae or for failing to achieve any political gain by making even the parliamentary investigation half-hearted, the criticism is the same.

What the people want from the ruling party is not regression, but a gesture of justice.

In the process of dragging the Cho Hee-dae impeachment situation until the end of the year, a parliamentary investigation into the judiciary's vested interests and legal corruption must also be conducted. What the people want is not a dormant ruling party that retreats at a critical stage of reform and achieves nothing, but a gesture of fairness and justice that seeks to clear accumulated evils, even if it means fighting and losing.

To remove the huge reef of judicial vested interests, we must thoroughly unite and consolidate within the camp and reorganize our ranks. However, the Lee Jae-myung administration is currently going in the opposite direction. It is turning the blade that should be aimed outward inward, wasting its strength by fighting with its allies.

The strong resistance of judicial vested interests is a problem, but the division and conflict within the progressive camp have already gone beyond the stage of resolution and healing. A pro-government YouTube channel declared its break with President Lee, exclaiming that it felt relieved. This YouTuber has been seething since being subjected to a search and seizure. There are also rumors that the next target is pro-Moon YouTuber P.

President Lee Jae-myung is not fighting with the People Power Party, but is squabbling with allies within his own camp. This is an unprecedented act of self-inflicted chaos. Initially, there was an interpretation that President Lee was confronting hardline pro-Moon factions for reform.

However, recently, a different perspective has emerged. It is ultimately a fight for control of the Democratic Party. Before becoming the leader of the Democratic Party, President Lee's own faction was extremely small. However, through two terms as leader and as president, he cultivated the so-called 'pro-Lee faction.' It is also true that Lee Jae-myung's administrative ability and will for reform became quite important tools in this process.

However, the Democratic Party still has a 'structural majority' of the old mainstream (centered on pro-Moon). In the last party convention, despite President Lee Jae-myung and Kim Min-seok's best efforts, Kim Yong lost in the Supreme Council election, and it was a close contest that went to the runoff. The pro-Moon faction confirmed and cheered that the Democratic Party was by no means Lee Jae-myung's stronghold.

The reality of reform degenerating into a fight for control of the Democratic Party

Now, riding on that momentum, Yoo Si-min's bite has become even more powerful (“President Lee deceived the people”), and he will tear into them even more viciously in the future. Why? Because of prosecutorial reform? Absolutely not. It's merely to reclaim the keys to the Democratic Party's coffers, which are being taken over by the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction.

Currently, there is widespread speculation around the Democratic Party that the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction will not pursue a merger with the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and will leave it alone. If they merge with the Cho Kuk Innovation Party before the next general election, the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction's nomination pie will shrink even further. There's no need to merge and spoil the broth for nothing.

There are also interpretations that the current infighting and bloody struggle between the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction and the pro-Moon Jae-in faction, and President Lee Jae-myung's confrontation with the 'hardliners' of prosecutorial reform, are not for reform but are degenerating into a fight over vested interests. It's merely a fierce competition for shares to secure a larger slice of the Democratic Party's power pie.

Some even say that 'President Lee has had a change of heart.' The prediction is that even if they fight with the pro-Moon faction and both fall, they will never go together, and he will completely drive them out of the party until the general election. Why is President Lee acting so unreasonably?

It's the confidence that only someone who has held the reins of power can understand. Yoon Suk-yeol was the same. Numerous pieces of good advice poured in from those around him to go with Han Dong-hoon, but in the end, it was a separation. Yoon Suk-yeol could do as he pleased because he had power. Leaders who hold the reins of power tend to wield that sword recklessly, not even realizing their own hand is being cut.

I believe the decisive signal that President Lee is increasingly having a change of heart is the appointment of the new Chief of Staff, Lim Kwang-hyun. He is a yes-man. Furthermore, he is also the brother-in-law of lawyer Lee Seung-yeop, who defended President Lee in the Daejang-dong case. They are like family. Former Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik was picked up because he caught President Lee's eye, but he had almost no connection or contact with 'Lee Jae-myung's family,' meaning the Gyeonggi-Seongnam line.

Lee Jae-myung's true intentions implied by the appointment of Chief of Staff Lim Kwang-hyun

Kang Hoon-sik probably experienced numerous conflicts and confrontations with the Gyeonggi-Seongnam faction during his tenure. Kang Hoon-sik's political style isn't messy, so there haven't been any rumors, but it seems like the power struggles were intense.

Kang Hoon-sik is a rational and sensible politician. He may have felt frustration and despair when he encountered the Gyeonggi-Seongnam faction excessively shielding President Lee and cross-checking all personnel appointments.

It might be an excessive delusion, but looking at the current Gyeonggi-Seongnam faction, I'm reminded of the untouchable 'Choi Soon-sil unofficial team' of the past Park Geun-hye administration. Lim Gwang-hyun will not be able to easily touch the Gyeonggi-Seongnam faction. His appointment reveals President Lee's desire to further confine himself to 'their own league,' which no one can approach.

In the end, Kang Hoon-sik could not hold out any longer and surrendered. Although President Lee awarded former Chief Kang a plaque of merit, making his 'resignation' look good, such 'overdoing it' ironically highlighted Kang Hoon-sik's bitter departure.

The current situation is not just serious, but extremely grave. President Lee Jae-myung is still revered and trusted as a 'warrior of reform' by some progressive figures, but no one can guarantee how long that will last. Internally, he is causing confusion and conflict by eliminating allies who helped drive out internal rebel forces, and externally, he faces the checks and resistance of the judicial establishment, which is constantly looking for Lee Jae-myung's downfall.

A hostile symbiotic relationship with the pro-Moon faction, where they must coexist like passengers in the same boat.

President Lee Jae-myung, who received high expectations from the public for presenting a vision and blueprint for reform agendas, along with excellent administrative skills and a strong grasp of his duties. However, in just over 1 year and 5 months, he is being alienated by his comrades and is at odds with the judiciary, increasingly being pushed to the brink. Asking why has now become meaningless.

What is clear is that Lee Jae-myung's ascent to the presidency was not due to his own strength alone. Divine providence, along with the help and cooperation of the now-enemy pro-Moon faction, was decisive. If power was created together in such a way, it should naturally be distributed equally and shared.

However, I hope President Lee Jae-myung will reflect on whether he has forgotten the fervent support of his comrades who suffered through the harsh winter under martial law, and is now engrossed in a power game of his own. His SNS politics and the directive for the head of the Central Investigation Agency to attend cabinet meetings evoke the image of an authoritarian leader who has become arrogant, rather than confident.

Even now, I hope President Lee will abandon any ulterior motives. If he is thinking of expelling the pro-Moon faction and becoming the sole master of the Democratic Party, he must realize that misfortune will begin right from Gunsan. Even if he doesn't concede to a joint government, he should open up a cause and space for his 'old comrades' to walk together.

The pro-Moon faction will not perish. It is merely an antagonistic symbiotic relationship where they must somehow coexist. I hope President Lee will face this political reality and open the fortress gates that he has kept locked. If you go alone, you go fast, but if you go together, you go far. I hope President Lee will no longer stray down side paths. Someday, he might find himself alone on a desolate road from which he can never return. I sincerely hope he knows that many citizens still support Lee Jae-myung's reforms.