단상斷想

In May 2017, when the Moon Jae-in administration was launched, Cho Kuk was appointed as the first Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs. The Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs is the position within the Blue House that is closest to the President and looks into the inner workings of power most deeply. It is a position where one can know sensitive matters concerning the President, their family, and close aides earlier and in more detail than ministers or the Chief of Staff. The scope of information that Cho Kuk had access to while serving as Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs would have been considerable. This likely included matters related to the President's family's business, the possibility of close aides' involvement in vested interests, the flow of political funds, and even sensitive aspects of the President's personal past. This suggests that Cho Kuk may have served not only as a policy brain but also as a 'secret repository' for the Moon Jae-in administration. It is true that Cho Kuk, as Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs, had fewer illegalities compared to previous presidents' Senior Secretaries for Civil Affairs. However, as a university professor who, instead of spearheading prosecutorial reform at the center of power, saw his own family investigated and imprisoned, and even drove the regime to seize power and incite insurrection, then contributed to the creation of a new regime, he can be seen as a symbol of incompetence, just like Moon Jae-in.

During this period, Yoon Seok-yeol, as the head of the Seoul Central District Prosecutors' Office, led the investigation into the abuse of power and the eradication of deep-rooted corruption, building a reputation as a 'strong (thug) prosecutor.' He earned the nickname 'the blade of investigative power' by successively arresting key figures of the existing power, including Park Geun-hye, Lee Myung-bak, and Samsung's Lee Jae-yong. Moon Jae-in and Yoon Seok-yeol seemed like a team for reform, and the media portrayed their relationship as 'partners to reform the prosecution.' However, this partnership had a fundamental contradiction inherent in it. Moon Jae-in tried to control prosecutorial power through prosecutorial reform, but Yoon Seok-yeol wanted to strengthen the independence and authority of the prosecution. If Moon Jae-in tried to complete the eradication of deep-rooted corruption by utilizing Yoon Seok-yeol, Yoon Seok-yeol tried to solidify his political position through the eradication of deep-rooted corruption. There was no problem as long as the interests of both parties coincided, but it was a structure that was bound to clash someday. More importantly, Yoon Seok-yeol would have grasped a significant amount of sensitive information within the Moon Jae-in administration during the investigation process. The investigation into the eradication of deep-rooted corruption was not simply aimed at the past regime, but also a process of naturally revealing various vested interest structures and personal connections connected to the current regime. Yoon Seok-yeol accumulated this information and stood in a position to use it as a political asset.

In June 2019, Moon Jae-in unexpectedly nominated Yoon Seok-yeol as Prosecutor General. At the time, there were expectations within the ruling party that "the Yoon Seok-yeol card could accelerate prosecutorial reform," but conversely, it also carried the risk of strengthening the independence of the prosecution organization and increasing the possibility of uncontrollability. This was one of Moon Jae-in's biggest political gambles, but looking back, perhaps Moon Jae-in had been Kim Keon-hee and Yoon Seok-yeol's avatar for a long time. Of course, was Cho Kuk also just playing an NPC role as an avatar?

In July, just a month later, the Blue House nominates Cho Kuk as Minister of Justice. It was meant to put Cho Kuk forward as a symbolic figure of prosecutorial reform. However, this also created a structure in which the Prosecutor General and the Minister of Justice could clash head-on. Moreover, Cho Kuk had criticized Yoon Seok-yeol in the past, so personal feelings were also complexly intertwined. In August, as soon as Cho Kuk was nominated as a candidate for minister, suspicions of private equity funds, forgery of commendation certificates, and irregularities in college admissions erupted one after another. These allegations went beyond the issue of Cho Kuk's personal morality and shook the fundamental legitimacy of the Moon Jae-in administration. In particular, the allegations of irregularities in college admissions related to the fairness of educational opportunities were in direct conflict with the values of 'fairness and justice' advocated by the Moon Jae-in government. Yoon Seok-yeol's prosecution broke the practice of investigating candidates for minister and launched an all-out search and seizure. In just a few weeks, more than 70 searches and seizures were conducted, and the scope of the investigation expanded to include spouses, children, and even relatives. It was an unprecedented intensity. It was not an investigation but a political message. It was a declaration that 'the prosecution does not make exceptions for anyone' and a warning to the Blue House. Looking back, this is also a comedy. The fact that Yoon Seok-yeol carried out the investigation in a swift manner was a strong defense posture against prosecutorial reform and a way for a guilty person to maintain power. Moon Jae-in's personnel appointment was a zero, and the appointment of Yoon Seok-yeol as Prosecutor General may have been the first and last exercise of personnel power. Perhaps Moon Jae-in was under Yoon Seok-yeol and Kim Kun-hee thereafter.

On September 9th, Moon Jae-in appointed Cho Kuk as Minister of Justice despite strong public criticism. Ostensibly, it was a decision to complete prosecutorial reform, but in reality, a very complex calculation was at play. Giving up on Cho Kuk meant losing the momentum for prosecutorial reform and admitting political defeat, but protecting Cho Kuk to the end meant preparing for an even stronger counterattack from Yoon Seok-yeol's prosecution. What is important here is that Moon Jae-in appointed Cho Kuk but did not actually protect him from the investigation. Cho Kuk, as Minister of Justice, was in a position to direct Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol as his superior, but in reality, he could not stop the investigation against himself. This can be interpreted as Moon Jae-in telling Cho Kuk, "I will appoint you, but I am in a position where I cannot provide substantial protection." From this point on, some in the political sphere began to interpret it as "Moon Jae-in opened the way for Yoon Seok-yeol to investigate." This shows the incompetence behind the political ruthlessness of Moon Jae-in prioritizing his own safety over Cho Kuk.

On October 14, Cho Kuk finally resigned from his position as Minister. His 35-day term as Minister became one of the shortest and most controversial ministerial terms in Korean political history. The political blow was fatal, and the ruling party's 'prosecution reform icon' collapsed overnight. Conversely, Yoon Seok-yeol gained nationwide recognition by acquiring the image of a prosecutor standing up to power. Cho Kuk's downfall was not a personal political failure. It was an event that dealt a fatal blow to the moral authority of the Moon Jae-in administration and completely crushed the momentum for prosecution reform. The targets of reform and investigation gained more power, resulting in Moon Jae-in and Cho Kuk raising Yoon Seok-yeol as a political rival. Ironically, the two people Moon Jae-in chose for prosecution reform destroyed each other, ultimately leading to the failure of prosecution reform itself. Looking back, perhaps Moon Jae-in was not qualified to lead the liquidation of the prosecution's existence, which is a task of modern Korean history. I believe the heavens have not yet fully revealed Moon Jae-in's problems.

One important hypothesis that emerged from this process is that Cho Kuk, during his time as Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs, was aware of the irregularities and sensitive issues involving Moon Jae-in himself, his family, and his close associates, and Yoon Seok-yeol also grasped some of this during the investigation process. If Yoon Seok-yeol used this as a 'pressure card,' Moon Jae-in would not have been able to risk himself and his family becoming targets of the prosecution's investigation by protecting Cho Kuk to the end. If this hypothesis is true, the Cho Kuk scandal of 2019 was not a superficial conflict over prosecutorial reform, but rather the result of a more complex power deal. Moon Jae-in sacrificed Cho Kuk to protect his regime and family, effectively granting Yoon Seok-yeol a pardon. Cho Kuk became a scapegoat in this deal, but at the same time, he was also a dangerous figure who knew Moon Jae-in's secrets. After the Cho Kuk scandal, the relationship between Moon Jae-in and Yoon Seok-yeol rapidly deteriorated, but Yoon Seok-yeol was able to maintain his position as Prosecutor General until 2021. This suggests that Yoon Seok-yeol had secured considerable political leverage over the Moon Jae-in administration. If Yoon Seok-yeol had accurately grasped the weaknesses of the Moon Jae-in administration, Moon Jae-in would not have been able to easily remove him.

After 2020, when Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae tried to discipline Yoon Seok-yeol, Moon Jae-in expelled Choo Mi-ae, making the situation even stranger. The frontal clash between Yoon Seok-yeol and Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae was not a difference of opinion on work, but a political declaration in which Yoon Seok-yeol completely ignored Moon Jae-in, and Yoon Seok-yeol and Kim Geon-hee were the victims. There is no way Cho Kuk would not have known this process. By refusing the Ministry of Justice's intervention in prosecution investigations and personnel matters, Yoon Seok-yeol secured political legitimacy by advocating for the 'independence of the prosecution.' In March 2021, Yoon Seok-yeol resigned from his position as Prosecutor General and officially announced his move to run for president. This was a very calculated move. By resigning without completing his term as Prosecutor General, he showed 'conviction that he would not succumb to power' and at the same time secured justification for entering politics. The national recognition he gained through the Cho Kuk scandal and his image as a 'reform prosecutor' became his greatest political assets. The Cho Kuk scandal played a decisive role in Yoon Seok-yeol's political success. If the Cho Kuk scandal had not occurred, Yoon Seok-yeol would still have been just one prosecutor general under the Moon Jae-in administration. Through his confrontation with Cho Kuk, he solidified his image as an independent figure confronting the regime, and this became the foundation for his victory in the 2022 presidential election. At the time, all media outlets were enthusiastic about Yoon Seok-yeol. Looking back now, Moon Jae-in's incompetence and misjudgment may have been planned from the beginning. Even Moon Jae-in's election as president may have been a selection by an invisible power that highly valued his incompetence.

In the 2022 presidential election, Yoon Seok-yeol succeeded Moon Jae-in as president. Cho Kuk was completely pushed out of the political arena due to trials and prison sentences, and Moon Jae-in continued a relatively quiet retirement life at his private residence in Yangsan. However, Moon Jae-in repeatedly said "I'm sorry" to Cho Kuk in several interviews and memoirs. This apology has a meaning that goes beyond human compassion. First, it may be an expression of guilt that Moon Jae-in politically used and then abandoned Cho Kuk. Second, it may be an expression of a secret sense of indebtedness that Moon Jae-in was able to survive because Cho Kuk kept silent while protecting Moon Jae-in's secrets. Third, it may be an attempt to prevent the Cho Kuk incident from being recorded as his biggest mistake in historical evaluation. From Cho Kuk's perspective, he lost everything for Moon Jae-in but remained silent until the end. If he had revealed sensitive information he learned during his time as Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs, it could have dealt a fatal blow to the Moon Jae-in administration. However, Cho Kuk did not use such a 'last resort,' which may have been loyalty to a political comrade, or it may have been the result of a larger political calculation. Perhaps Moon Jae-in is more incompetent and pursues only a good image than the public thinks, and Cho Kuk may be a person whose limitation is that he does not know Moon Jae-in's weaknesses well. Both are 'Dumb and Dumber,' but the reality is that the public's information depends on the media's production, so no matter what fool you serve, it will eventually be disguised as the right person to the public.

The period from 2024 to 2025 is when a new variable appeared in this love triangle. Amidst the political upheaval of the launch of the Lee Jae-myung government and the Kim Gun-hee special investigation, Moon Jae-in publicly suggested the pardon of Cho Kuk. This was a very strategic timing. The political meaning of the request for Cho Kuk's pardon is multi-layered. First, it is an attempt to repay the political and human debt for abandoning Cho Kuk in the past. Second, it is a strategy to reunite the pro-Moon faction through the reinstatement of Cho Kuk. Third, it is part of the political pressure on the Yoon Seok-yeol regime. This is because if Cho Kuk is reinstated, it could damage the legitimacy of the Yoon Seok-yeol regime. But this may be an impossible imagination given Moon Jae-in's personality. If he is in the same boat with Yoon Seok-yeol and Kim Gun-hee, it means that the fire has fallen on his feet.

If Cho Kuk knew about Moon Jae-in's corruption and remained silent, protecting the secret, allowing Moon Jae-in to survive, then the current request for amnesty can be seen not as a 'comrade restoration' but as an attempt to liquidate past debts and reverse his historical evaluation. I wonder what perspective the public has. If one is favorable to Moon Jae-in, they may also be favorable to Cho Kuk, but assuming that these two people could not have been unaware of Kim Keon-hee and Yoon Seok-yeol, Cho Kuk's future actions will have to be proven through action in the fierce purge of the internal rebellion.

The Cho Kuk scandal of 2019 was not just a simple failure of prosecutorial reform. It was a long-term political drama involving power deals and betrayals between Moon Jae-in, Yoon Seok-yeol, and Cho Kuk, and the aftermath continues to this day. At the heart of this drama lies not personnel conflicts, but the nature of power and the survival instincts of politicians, and the public is merely a naive NPC, a voting machine. Power inherently implies betrayal. Moon Jae-in protected himself by abandoning Cho Kuk, and Yoon Seok-yeol seized power by betraying Moon Jae-in. Cho Kuk appears to have shown his last loyalty by maintaining silence, but as a result, he may end up being the biggest victim and a fool who proves nothing.

As of 2025, the relationship between the three people has not been completely resolved. Cho Kuk's amnesty, Moon Jae-in's historical evaluation, and the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's punishment process are still ongoing political tasks. And behind all of this lies a fundamental question about the structural limitations of Korean politics and the nature of power. The Cho Kuk incident has become a textbook example of how power deifies and destroys individuals in Korean political history, and how fragile the emptiness of human nature is in political comradeship. It was also clearly revealed how the great agenda of the Korean people, the reform of the prosecution service, could be derailed by puppet politicians. Our NPCs will never know that attribute as long as they are alive. Hoping to be liberated from the cruelty of a fact they don't want to admit.