단상斷想

Seeing the news that Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jung-gwan is trailing behind US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, begging for negotiations, I feel pathetic and angry. What good is face in the face of national interest, but still, due to Trump's 'gangster diplomacy', the Korean president, high-ranking officials, businessmen, and the public all have sleepless nights over the news of US-led tariff negotiations (read as threats).

Of course, large corporations such as Samsung and Hyundai will be directly affected by this tariff war, but as the permission of some agricultural imports is becoming a foregone conclusion, it is also a 'people's livelihood issue' that can bring changes not only to the rural economy but also to our food menu itself. The situation will gradually come where we realize that Trump's 'tariff fight' against 200 countries around the world is by no means someone else's business.

The US Trump administration has already unilaterally announced that it will impose a 25% reciprocal tariff on Korea from August 1st. If there is no agreement on mutual tariff adjustments between the US and Korea by August 1, our exports will have to compete in the US market with a 25% tax added. 25% doesn't really give you a sense of it.

Let's take a car as an example. Before tariffs were imposed, the average price of a new car in the US in December of last year was $49,740 (about 68.8 million won). If a 15% tariff is applied here, the vehicle price is 79.12 million won (10.32 million won in tariffs), while if a 25% tariff is imposed, the vehicle price rises to 86 million won (17.2 million won in tariffs). Applying a 25% tariff is 6.88 million won ($4,900) more expensive than applying a 15% tariff.

Unless American consumers are eager to buy Korean cars, would they be in the mood to pay an extra 17 million won in a few months? If the US maintains a 25% tariff rate on Korean cars, Hyundai Motor and Kia's annual operating profit could decrease by more than 9 trillion won. However, if the tariff rate is reduced to 15% like Japan and the European Union (EU), the reduction in operating profit for Hyundai Motor and Kia is expected to fall below 6 trillion won.

Based on pre-tariff prices, Hyundai and Kia maintain prices about 5% cheaper than Toyota in the United States. However, if Japan receives a 15% tariff "benefit" while Korea remains at 25%, a price reversal phenomenon could occur for Korean cars.

Japan, having been "hit first," promised $550 billion in investment in the US and was then released from the 25% shackles, successfully defending with 15%. The "Korean people," who must win even in a cold water drinking contest against Japan to be satisfied, cannot fall behind Japan's 15%. Perhaps the anti-Japanese and overcoming-Japan dumbbells of the entire nation, which dictate "we must beat Japan at all costs," will feel heavier on the shoulders of Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Kim Jung-kwan than the policy goal of reasonable tariff adjustments.

In fact, tariffs are not just taxes. They originated from the political practice of powerful people marking their territory. The ancient Roman Empire controlled the movement of goods by imposing taxes on ports, borders, and major road entrances, thereby demonstrating the empire's dominance. This tax, called 'Portorium,' was the core of Roman finance and a tool to reveal the empire's borders.

In medieval Europe, lords along the Rhine River imposed tolls on ships, which was not just about generating revenue but also a political declaration that they controlled the river. Tariffs were not just an act or policy of economic benefit, but a mechanism of power over geographical space.

Trump is pushing ahead with the tariff war, risking the devastation of his own domestic economy due to rising prices of his own goods, not simply to fill the US coffers with tariffs. The goal is for the United States to reaffirm its realistic position as the world's top hegemonic power through tariff increases. At the same time, the political reason to squeeze China, which is slowly crawling up economically and trying to sit on top of the United States, will be more urgent and desperate.

It twists my stomach to think that Trump is now waging a 'tariff die-hard war' against the whole world and enjoying the desire for conquest that the Roman emperor must have felt. In the meantime, I cannot erase the bitter feeling as I encounter another piece of news from the United States.

The Wall Street Journal has been intensively tracking Trump's 'Epstein scandal' involvement for the past few months. Trump's Epstein-related allegations are centered on the fact that billionaire Jeffrey Epstein, who was imprisoned for 'sexual exploitation of minors' and committed suicide in 2019, had a long-standing friendship with President Trump. The Wall Street Journal is almost entirely covering Trump's alleged involvement in the Epstein scandal.

In particular, the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump sent a "celebratory letter with obscene drawings of women" for Epstein's 50th birthday in 2003, citing this as supporting President Trump's allegations of Epstein. Epstein's sexual exploitation crimes were mainly committed between 2002 and 2005.

President Trump denied the allegations on July 28, while meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland, in response to reporters' questions, saying, "I am not a painter. I don't draw women, especially. I can say that clearly."

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal has been intensively reporting on Trump's alleged involvement in the Epstein scandal, focusing on attacking his morality and hypocrisy. In particular, reports have surfaced that his 'guest list' and President Trump's name appear multiple times in the Epstein files, but the White House has dismissed this as 'fake news'.

Jeffrey Epstein's underage sex abuse and human trafficking case is, in itself, an atrocious crime. The names of numerous celebrities involved with him have deeply shocked American society. Trump is also constantly under suspicion due to his past friendship with Epstein, which raises serious questions about his morality and ethics. Even Americans who applaud Trump for raising the status of a 'dying' America are silent or try to ignore the Epstein scandal.

Trump's leadership has the two faces of an extreme Janus. If the tariff war is a strong foreign policy showing America's will to 'reorganize the new order,' the Epstein scandal shows that the leadership of the leader who is leading such a great power is tarnished by sexual scandals and is not securing legitimacy. How should we understand these two extreme American 'maga' phenomena?

No matter how much Trump tries to suppress the Epstein scandal with the power of his office, the iceberg beneath the surface will eventually emerge. Trump's tariff war is nothing more than a synthesis of narcissism and authoritarianism, symbolized by 'MAGA'. Far from a hegemonic power's 'commitment' to human progress and reconciliation, it only twists the wrists of poor countries to further concentrate America's wealth. In particular, the fact that he is suppressing the Epstein scandal with power foreshadows that Trump's hard-line tariff war policy may end as an empty showmanship without a moral foundation.

Even in this situation, conservative commentator Kim Dae-jung advises in his column, "The Lee Jae-myung left-wing government in Korea is now being weighed against the MAGA doctrine of the extreme right-wing Trump in the United States. We must be careful whether to break with US imperialism like the extreme slogans of the left, or to go 'yes, yes here and there' like President Lee's way of handling things. It is a matter of Korea's future."

The demand for President Lee Jae-myung to choose between black and white is not the logic of Koreans. If Trump meets President Lee Jae-myung, he may start by demanding, "Choose between China and the United States." But why should we show the United States whether it is "America or China"?

The world is threatened by Trump's tariff war, which he triggered convulsively. There is no morality in the foundation of that policy, only the emptiness of playing a lone hero. We must dream of a Korea that can say 'no' to Trump, and a Republic of Korea that can confidently overcome the crisis even if it says 'no' to the United States. It is sad to see our reality of grabbing at the coattails of Trump, who is trying to 'externalize' serious internal inequality and polarization grievances by pushing American Firstism with gangster diplomacy.