단상斷想

Lee Jae-myung's victory in the 21st presidential election is a foregone conclusion. I have nothing to say even if it's premature, but in past presidential elections, the approval rating results just before the public opinion poll ban continued until the presidential election. There was not a single reversal.

Realmeter conducted a presidential candidate support survey of 1,003 voters aged 18 or older nationwide from the 26th to the 27th at the request of Energy Economy Newspaper.

Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea recorded 49.2%, Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party recorded 36.8%, and Lee Jun-seok of the New Reform Party recorded 10.3% in approval ratings. Lee Jae-myung's approval rating rose by 2.6 percentage points from the previous survey (22nd to 23rd). Kim Moon-soo's approval rating fell by 0.8%p and Lee Jun-seok's approval rating fell by 0.1%p, respectively. This survey was conducted using a wireless (100%) automated response method (the margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and the response rate is 10.1%. For details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website).

This candidate briefly fell to the 45% range as the election day approached, but is showing a trend of approaching the 50% range again with 6 days left until the election. On the other hand, candidate Kim is unable to rebound and continues to hover in the 35% range. It seems that candidate Lee Jun-seok's upper limit is 10%.

This survey result is the last poll conducted just before the ban on publicizing opinion polls, which is called the 'blackout' period. In past elections, this 'last' survey has directly led to the presidential election result. If you believe in the law of the winning candidate being in 1st place right before the support rate publication ban, let's prepare to celebrate Lee Jae-myung's inauguration as president in advance.

However, I would like to offer a word of advice before the Democratic Party and candidate Lee Jae-myung, who suffered from the 'lynching' of the prosecution's dictatorship and the tyranny of a villain under the Yoon Seok-yeol regime, get excited and thrilled after taking power and becoming president, and try to listen to 'other people's stories'. Although this likely presidential victory is entirely due to Lee Jae-myung, his loyal fellow lawmakers, and his even more loyal supporters, I sincerely hope that you enjoy the feeling of victory for only one day, June 4th.

Recalling Lee Jae-myung's past career is because a politician's background is directly related to his leadership and political philosophy. Politicians who used to be public officials are rigid, politicians from judges and prosecutors seem to do things according to the law but are arrogant, and politicians who wear badges after a long party life have practical and humble aspects.

Which category does Lee Jae-myung fall into? Lee Jae-myung took his first step in 'politics' as a human rights lawyer in Seongnam, not his hometown or place of origin. Why is human rights lawyer activity classified as a political field? He once said that he was deeply impressed by former President Roh Moo-hyun's political philosophy and entered politics.

Roh Moo-hyun naturally integrated into politics while working as a labor rights lawyer in Busan. Lee Jae-myung also started as a human rights lawyer in Seongnam, defending the poor, the marginalized, and the socially vulnerable, and rose to become the mayor of Seongnam. Riding on that momentum, he even became the governor of Gyeonggi Province.

Lee Jae-myung, who was not part of the Seoul National University network, not a legitimate member of the student movement, and not from the party staff, was truly a minority among minorities, and rose to power solely on his 'ability'. If he becomes president this time, he will be the first president from Gyeonggi Province.

Lee Jae-myung's advantage was that he only received public attention for his leadership skills. When he was mayor or governor, 'performance' that would appeal to citizens or provincial residents was the top priority. He solved civil complaints and built up performance day and night.

He also took an interest in politics and actively participated, visiting the site when the bereaved families went on a hunger strike due to the Sewol ferry disaster and receiving media attention. Lee Jae-myung is also known as a politician who uses the media and SNS well enough to be associated with the 'finger unit'. Lee Jae-myung, who combines performance and promotion, has come to this position today because he has both drive, decisiveness, and administrative power.

Looking at this, Lee Jae-myung is definitely worthy of being called a survival-struggle politician. Because he was not part of the party's mainstream, he had to create his own ladder to climb up. And to survive in the party, and to survive Yoon Seok-yeol's oppression as the party leader, he struggled, was resolute, and was fierce. For survival, he sometimes had to change his words and quietly push his representative policies back. It cannot be denied that this has become the value and philosophy that represents Lee Jae-myung today in the name of 'practicality'.

In fact, Lee Jae-myung is not as 'dogmatic' about progressive values ​​compared to Moon Jae-in. Moon Jae-in became president after working as a pure human rights lawyer, but Lee Jae-myung is more sensitive to performance because he served as a mayor and governor after being a lawyer.

Lee Jae-myung believes that a politician's first calling and duty is to go without complaint to where supporters or party members tell him to go, rather than sticking to his own beliefs that go against public expectations. So he didn't clash much with his supporters.

Such absolute empathy, identification, and solidarity with supporters and party members were the most essential 'weapon' for Lee Jae-myung's survival. But now, whether he goes to Yongsan or the Blue House, once he ascends to the throne, there is no longer a monster to 'eliminate' him. Lee Jae-myung's only enemy is Lee Jae-myung himself.

The moment Lee Jae-myung seizes power, he will be free from the trauma of survival. The timing and motivation of this transition are very important. If someone claims that Lee Jae-myung is the reincarnation of Kim Dae-jung, I would like to interpret it this way.

Kim Dae-jung was an icon of the democratization movement. He survived imprisonment, exile, and a near-death experience of being buried alive in the East Sea, and even received a death sentence. When comparing the animosity and anger towards the 'enemy' who tried to eliminate him, Lee Jae-myung is far younger. Even Kim Dae-jung ran for president solely to survive, but as soon as he became president, he completely transformed.

He joined hands with Kim Jong-pil, who had tried to kill him, gave ministerial positions to several people, and appointed a person from Yeongnam (Kim Joong-kwon) as his first chief of staff, saying, "Now is the time to save the country. We will perish if we do not unite." To overcome the IMF national crisis that Kim Young-sam left him, he turned away from people from all walks of life and the 'people' who supported him, carried out large-scale restructuring, and also promoted chaebol reform.

Kim Dae-jung's initial choices as president were met with resistance and resentment from the public, but he overcame his attachment to past struggles and survival, and ultimately saved the country with his conviction. And even now, he is revered as a president of unity and vision.

When Democratic Party lawmakers or progressive elders praise Lee Jae-myung, they most often say "the second Kim Dae-jung." In what ways is that the case? They cite his 'subjugation' of the mainstream vested interests from the party's non-mainstream, his strong charisma, fandom politics based on the masses, and his political power to turn oppression into a survival strategy.

But there are two keys left. Conviction and integration. Kim Dae-jung did it. With conviction, he overcame the IMF crisis beyond the camp, and reformed politics with integration that embraced even the 'enemy'. Lee Jae-myung boasted that the Democratic Party is the world's best democratic party that best reflects the will of its members, but sometimes he has to overcome this.

To become Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Republic of Korea, not Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, he must sometimes do the hard work of confronting his supporters. At that time, I hope that he will persuade and persuade his supporters with steely conviction for the sake of the country and the future, and overcome them. Just like Kim Dae-jung did.

And although he recruited many conservative figures before the presidential election, I hope that if he comes to power, he will also carry out the will of integration by placing 'enemies' in the most powerful and necessary positions. Just like Kim Dae-jung did back then.

Lee Jae-myung would be good at it.