단상斷想

The first TV debate between the 21st presidential candidates was held on the night of the 18th. It is said that the viewership was halved compared to the last presidential election. It is said that this is because the game was already tilted and interest was low, and many people watched it through other platforms such as YouTube instead of terrestrial broadcasting.

The media's evaluations are generally similar. There are many evaluations that Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party of Korea candidate, made a good defense with stability without making major mistakes despite the opponent's attacks. Kim Moon-soo, the People Power Party candidate, was consistently ordinary and unremarkable throughout, even though he was the second-place candidate, and there were many evaluations that 'I don't know who the first-place candidate is'.

As expected, Lee Jun-seok, the candidate of the New Reform Party, was busy looking for loopholes in candidate Lee Jae-myung, as he had more than 10 years of political and broadcasting experience and claimed to be a 'debate master'. Among the four, Kwon Young-guk, the Democratic Labor Party candidate, was the one who suddenly rose to prominence through this TV debate.

He was criticized for his 'personality' for refusing to shake hands with 'senior' Kim Moon-soo, but demanding the resignation of the impeachment-inducing party candidate and appealing the issue of social inequality to the entire nation was a worthwhile endeavor, even though he was a candidate from a 'seatless party'.

In fact, the Democrats probably felt relieved that Kim Moon-soo was too unprepared to even think about criticizing Lee Jae-myung. On the other hand, they are likely to be dissatisfied that Lee Jun-seok focused only on picking on things and "extremizing" the entire issue to highlight Lee Jae-myung's weaknesses, and that proper discussions did not take place.

It is a valid assessment at first glance, but it seems that candidate Lee also failed to properly show the charisma and issue control that would have allowed him to lead the debate as the top candidate yesterday. In fact, the presidential TV debates are more of a 'rite of passage' in which voters confirm the abilities and qualifications of candidates they have already decided on, rather than deciding on a candidate after watching the debate. This is because the general trend has never changed with just one TV debate.

That's not to say that TV debates are unimportant, but each party's candidates are likely aware that they are not a significant variable that can reverse the trend. It seems that the Democratic Party's strategy of 'just don't make mistakes' permeated the entire TV debate. The feeling of余裕 and stability of the winner and the evaluation that 'there is no need to give the impression that you are not prepared properly, but you look a little naive' are completely different issues.

Right now, the people don't see Lee Jae-myung, whose approval rating exceeds 50%, as a presidential 'candidate'. They sit in front of the TV, already preparing to accept him as the President of the Republic of Korea. They hope that he will lightly subdue Lee Jun-seok's sarcastic questions with a high understanding of policy, and they expect that such confidence and ability will lead to the competence of the next government, which does not even have a transition committee.

That's not to say that candidate Lee should enjoy the feeling of being number one in approval ratings and act like the president. The questions thrown by rival candidates are bound to bring out fundamentally 'extreme' examples. They are trying to make a hole in the impregnable wall of the number one candidate by any means possible. Candidate Lee was also criticized for generalizing and exaggerating question attitudes and minor issues during the TV debates with Moon Jae-in, who was a candidate at the time of the 19th presidential election primary.

While the candidates who asked the incorrect questions should be primarily criticized, this candidate's consistent attempt to escape by saying 'you're taking it too extremely' was also an insincere response. Regarding the question of why it is extreme and how Lee Jun-seok would use the 100 trillion AI investment, he should have at least prepared a minimal 'use case' and explained it in detail. Only then would Lee Jun-seok lose the justification for asking extreme questions.

If you unconditionally call Lee Jun-seok's criticism extreme, it may give the impression that you are trying to escape with political attacks without being prepared like the other party. This could also be a good bait for populism, which candidate Lee is often criticized for. Candidate Lee was often praised for his administrative skills and policy understanding during his time as Mayor of Seongnam and Governor of Gyeonggi Province, but these strengths were not evident in this TV debate, and the repeated use of the word 'extreme' was enough to raise doubts as to whether he was not properly prepared.

In addition, if you are not ready yet, admitting shortcomings and supplementing them can also be a point of differentiation. There will be criticism that it invites the opponent's attack, but it would have also had the effect of offsetting the 'sharpness' of candidate Lee, who always seems 'on edge'. The greatest virtue of a candidate who is likely to be a winner is consideration and inclusiveness, not trying to fight tooth and nail, saying that they can never lose to ridiculous questions.

And many assess that Lee Jun-seok provoked the situation himself by emphasizing the unheard-of policy of 'hotel economics' during the campaign period, although I don't know which expert in the camp came up with the idea. Of course, I know that the candidate Lee was trying to talk about the so-called 'multiplier effect' that the economy would be revitalized by triggering a chain of income and consumption increases if he released money,

However, by deliberately trying to emphasize the flow of money by bringing up the example of hotel reservation cancellations, it can give the misunderstanding that the empirical logic looks weak at first glance. The 'money' that the hotel lost due to reservation cancellations evaporates from the flow of money, and there is controversy because it only emphasizes that consumers are spending money in the first and second rounds.

In fact, yesterday's TV debate is not everything for Lee Jae-myung. It can't be. However, the disappointing thing is that the attitude shown by candidate Lee Jae-myung at the debate yesterday was the arrogant attitude and loose response of the first place, and above all, I think that Representative Lee unknowingly showed the Democratic Party's 'festival' atmosphere, where tension and desperation were not visible as if they had already won, in the TV debate.

Because he consistently maintained the attitude of "I'm always right about the issues pointed out by the opposing candidates. Or what are you going to do?" Lee Jae-myung's capable administrative power did not stand out much. Such an arrogant response is enough to create resentment that 'the Democratic Party is trying to go too easy'.

This snap election is a moment of dire crisis for our nation, to recover from the unprecedented 'villain' Yoon Seok-yeol's seizure-like destruction of state affairs driven by personal feelings. Lee Jae-myung is on the verge of receiving that grave responsibility and 'right to recovery' from the people. This is a stern command given to the politician Lee Jae-myung by the people suffering from the economic devastation caused by the state of emergency and impeachment. It is not a 'privilege of looseness' that allows him to answer vaguely in debates because he can easily win this presidential election.

What the people want from Lee Jae-myung is not to flatten Lee Jun-seok's nose with a war of words. They want to hear through Lee Jae-myung's mouth the 'real' alternative of how to return Korea, which Yoon Seok-yeol has ruined, to its original state. From a strategic point of view, it is time to share and preach the perception that "we are winning, but now is the most dangerous moment." That's how the prevailing opinion becomes solid.

The person who should be most desperate in the TV debate is Lee Jae-myung, who speaks of 'real alternatives,' not Lee Jun-seok, who tries to induce the opponent's mistakes with shallow knowledge from beginning to end. Now is not the time for the Democratic Party to celebrate, but the time to make a final death throes spurt.