단상斷想

I've chosen a somewhat provocative topic. Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party of Korea's presidential candidate who is likely to win the election, has little need to join hands with Hong Joon-pyo, the former mayor of Daegu, who has 'deliberately' declared his retirement from politics. Nevertheless, the 'implication' buried in this topic is worth considering in terms of asking in advance what kind of state administration philosophy candidate Lee will unfold after taking office.

Recently, candidate Lee Jae-myung has been making favorable remarks toward former Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, drawing attention to the background. On the 12th, candidate Lee posted an article on Facebook titled "Remembering the Romantic Politician Hong Joon-pyo."

In this article, he said to former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, who left the People Power Party, "I deeply sympathize with your dream of national management, especially the dream of the 7th Republic, and your words to overcome the crisis and move forward by creating a left-right integrated government."

In addition, candidate Lee said, "I was very sad that senior Hong, who left a great mark in Korean political history and devoted his life to the conservative party, eventually failed to realize his dream and declared retirement from politics." "In this crisis, is ideology or camp more important than national interest or people's happiness? Regardless of which party you supported or who you supported, I hope that we can all join forces for the future of Korea, beyond small differences in thought."

He concluded his message to former Mayor Hong by saying, "Have a good trip to the United States. Let's share a bowl of makgeolli when you return." It is widely pointed out that the reason Candidate Lee publicly shared such a warm message to former Mayor Hong on the first day of the official presidential election campaign was to soften the negative sentiments of the conservative and moderate voters who are still not very favorable to 'Lee Jae-myung'. 

However, in the political arena, there is an interpretation that Candidate Lee did not simply offer 'greetings' to former Mayor Hong, but rather laid the groundwork in advance with a 'Hong Jun-pyo courtship letter,' with a kind of 'small coalition' or political reorganization in mind with conservative figures who may leave the People Power Party after winning the presidential election.

This perspective is also based on the recent joining of Lee Byung-tae, former KAIST professor who was the economic policy advisor for former Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, to the Lee Jae-myung campaign. One media outlet reported on the 12th that "Lee Byung-tae, former KAIST professor who worked as a policy expert in Hong Joon-pyo's campaign during the People Power Party's presidential primary, will help Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung in the main election." It is said that the fact that former Professor Lee will join the Democratic Party's Central Election Committee will be announced as early as the 13th.

Former Professor Lee has been in charge of economic policies as the head of the Policy Planning Headquarters at Candidate Hong's camp. In particular, he has been in charge of designing policies to reduce virtual asset regulations and prevent the decline of global competitiveness, which is in line with Candidate Lee, who advocates virtual asset legalization.

In addition, Candidate Lee said at a meeting with economic YouTubers on the 8th that a won-based stablecoin market should be created, and that side effects would occur if real estate speculation was prevented, and that alternative investment destinations should be activated.

Former Professor Lee Byung-tae was a key figure in Hong Jun-pyo's campaign's economic policy and is known as a leading economic right-wing theorist within the People Power Party. If the recruitment of former Professor Lee Byung-tae is true, it is interpreted as not simply appointing a conservative economic strategist as a staff member, but rather as preparing a bridgehead for the Democratic Party to implement a kind of policy alliance and policy coalition with the conservative base. 

It is known that former Korea Economic Editor-in-Chief Jeong Gyu-jae, who had dinner with candidate Lee, also recommended former Professor Lee at this meeting. Recently, candidate Lee has been broadening the scope of communication with moderate "admiring faction" figures from the conservative base, such as former Editor-in-Chief Jeong Gyu-jae, and continuing a broad-ranging move that does not distinguish between the left and right camps. 

In particular, this candidate symbolically demonstrated his will for left-right integration by recruiting former Minister of Environment Yoon Yeo-jun as the Standing General Chairman of the Democratic Party's Election Campaign Committee. The fact that candidate Lee, who has a high probability of winning the presidential election, is deliberately putting Chairman Yoon forward is meaningful in terms of securing justification for forming a unified government or reorganizing the political landscape beyond the logic of the camps even after the presidential election.

In response, a strategy official from the Democratic Party's off-site camp said, “If candidate Lee Jae-myung wins the presidential election, he will have to start his duties immediately without a transition committee. The first month or two could be chaotic. In this regard, the idea of a coalition government with the conservatives is aimed at comforting the conservatives and stabilizing the political situation, rather than resistance from supporters, and attempting a soft landing in the early days of taking office. This may also dilute the instability through integrated actions in a situation where the judicial risk has not been completely resolved,” showing a positive response to the reorganization of the political landscape and the unified government.

Meanwhile, from former Mayor Hong Joon-pyo's perspective, the 'alliance theory' with candidate Lee Jae-myung is not very meaningful since he has already retired from politics. Nevertheless, he has a history of declaring retirement from politics after failing to win a general election in the past, only to quietly return. He declared his retirement from politics in a fit of anger this time, knowing that he had been backstabbed by former President Yoon Seok-yeol, but he has the political sense to pretend he can't win if candidate Lee Jae-myung makes a sincere offer to bring him back to politics.

In particular, former Mayor Hong has repeatedly argued for opening the 'era of the Seventh Republic' since the second half of 2024. He also argued that "the 87 system has now reached the end of its life" and that "an integrated responsible government is needed where left and right parties can form a coalition to overcome the crisis." This statement can be interpreted as a plan that includes a 'national system reorganization' at the level of constitutional amendment.

In addition, former Mayor Hong also argued, "The next president must launch a left-right coalition government based on cooperative governance to overcome the national crisis, not an ideological war." Of course, it was a statement based on the premise that he would be the president himself, but it is certain that this was his political belief.

From Lee Jae-myung's perspective, there is a possibility that he will pursue political reorganization or small-scale coalition with moderate and conservative figures who are likely to defect from the People Power Party's division process after winning the presidential election. The recruitment of conservative figures such as Lee Byung-tae and Yoon Yeo-jun can be interpreted as a move for this.

However, negative views also exist. One political commentator said, “There are too many aspects that have gone too far. Former Mayor Hong's retirement from politics can be reversed, but it is unconvincing that he has made 'anti-Lee Jae-myung sentiment' his political trademark and suddenly agrees to his small coalition and cooperates directly. The conservative base may distrust Lee's integration moves and become more angry at Lee Jae-myung. Furthermore, there is a high possibility that strong supporters of the Democratic Party, such as Gae-ttal, will fiercely oppose the small coalition or reorganization of the political world with the conservatives. This is highly likely to lead to a result that undermines the driving force of the Lee Jae-myung administration's initial state affairs, which may be launched without a transition committee.”

Nevertheless, the talk of Lee Jae-myung-led reorganization of the political landscape or a minor coalition government after the presidential election stems from the internal division of the People Power Party and the weakening of conservative forces, the demand for national unity, Lee Jae-myung's pragmatism, the need for national stabilization, the fundamental reorganization of the long-term political structure, and the possibility of former Mayor Hong's return.

This can be understood as a move beyond a simple election strategy to resolve the side effects of the extreme camp confrontation in Korean politics after the presidential election and to form a new political framework. Negative views such as distrust of the conservative base, backlash from hard-line supporters, and weakening of national administration momentum are still highly likely to act as risks in the early stages of taking office, but candidate Lee's pragmatic leadership and communication with conservative figures could be a positive sign to offset them.

If Lee Jae-myung wins the presidential election by a landslide and former Mayor Hong Jun-pyo actively responds to the Democratic Party's 'courtship', Korean politics may reach an important turning point in restoring a politics of coexistence and compromise, rather than a do-or-die war after June 3rd. What is clear is that the extreme political confrontation and division triggered by the war between Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-yeol has now come to an end.