단상斷想

With the presidential election about 40 days away, former Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung is taking big strides forward with his "inevitable trend." Former leader Lee is showing overwhelming performance in the Democratic Party's presidential primary. The voting rate in the first regional tour (Chungcheong and Yeongnam regions) primary was 89.56%.

In the past, former President Kim Dae-jung's charisma to control the party was solid. Even DJ had a voting rate of 78.04% in the 1997 presidential primary. Former President Park Geun-hye's voting rate in the 2012 presidential primary, after Lee Myung-bak, when there were 'no' competitors in the party, was 83.97%. In comparison, former leader Lee's early voting rate is truly unprecedented. There are complaints that 'the primary is not a hit,' but it is not a significant variable.

As the former representative, you only need to carefully remove any 'landmines' that may be in front of you and move forward. If the situation required close pursuit, you might make unreasonable moves, but now you only need to remove the stones on the newly built road that is widely open to the presidential destination.

In the last 10 days, the former representative had about 10 publicly disclosed schedules. It's 'rich man's caution' to the point of not even one a day. Since public appearances can't only bring 'good news', it's better to take a restrained approach. At a recent meeting with securities industry officials, the former representative even turned off the microphone and spoke due to possible election laws, showing that the former representative's 'knocking on a stone bridge' approach is completely ingrained in his body.

Still, you never know with elections. As the presidential election approaches, one might unknowingly imagine entering the Presidential Office and become 'intoxicated' with the atmosphere of victory, potentially leading to gaffes or overreach. Right now, Lee Jae-myung's greatest enemy is not the People Power Party's presidential candidate, who is dwindling and collapsing. The biggest key is how much former Representative Lee can suppress his own 'desire for power' and maintain composure.

In fact, Lee Jae-myung has nothing more to show in this presidential election. He just needs to proactively implement the pro-moderate and pan-conservative policies that he was hesitant to pursue actively in the last presidential election. But the problem is that policy discussions are boring in elections. It can't be helped.

The people want so many dramatic elements even in that short time of about 40 days left. They are subtly hoping for a 'ratings thief' called a big tent, rather than a lukewarm subject called 'Eodae-myeong'. The conservative camp, where the main pillar has almost collapsed due to impeachment, is also trying to jump on such a 'jackpot' atmosphere.

If there is one ray of light that the conservative camp on the verge of collapse is still looking for, it is the 'anti-Lee Jae-myung alliance big tent theory'. First of all, regardless of whether this big tent will unfold, we should pay attention to the political energy and momentum that will be generated as the pan-conservative camp brings all the 'cabinet system forces' (centered on Lee Nak-yeon) of the non-Lee Jae-myung faction under the tent and stages a surprise drama of political reorganization in an instant.

The banner of the 'pan-conservative' camp's 'presidential election novel,' which they are currently dreaming of and diligently writing, is roughly as follows. The reason for specifically calling it 'pan-conservative' is that their big tent has the potential to include even the 'Lee Jae-myung-hating' faction, such as former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon, who left the Democratic Party.

First, the pan-conservative camp cites the rise of former Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo as a People Power Party presidential candidate as the primary condition for them to expand their tent the most. Even before the primary, former Minister Kim subtly hinted that the ultimate goal of this presidential election was to 'prevent Lee Jae-myung from taking power' rather than his own election. He openly preached a 'seed of wheat' theory, saying that he would not refuse any role to stop Lee Jae-myung.

This "devotion theory" of former Minister Kim is becoming the basis and justification for him to agree to a unification with Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo after he was finally chosen as the People Power Party's presidential candidate. Inside and outside the People Power Party, there is widespread talk that former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo or former Chairman Han Dong-hoon would never agree to a unification with Acting President Han Duck-soo if they become the final presidential candidate.

In the end, the logic is that Kim Moon-soo must be the primary key for a big tent to unfold. And the key to unlocking this Kim Moon-soo presidential candidate condition is the theory of Han Duck-soo's presidential candidacy. If Kim Moon-soo is applauded for his rise to the presidential candidate in the People Power Party, Han Duck-soo will respond by declaring his independent presidential candidacy.

First, assuming that Kim Moon-soo ultimately wins the People Power Party's presidential primary, that day will be May 3rd. And Han Duck-soo's deadline for resigning from public office is before May 4th. On May 3rd and 4th, we can finally confirm whether the big tent of the pan-conservative camp can be unfolded. Of course, if Han Duck-soo comes out before that and declares his independent presidential candidacy, the screening of the big tent drama will be brought forward. For Han Duck-soo, if he can solve the problem of election fund sponsors, there is nothing he cannot try.

In this process, we can also anticipate the joining of the progressive camp's 'anti-Lee Jae-myung forces,' such as former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon. Time is too short, so it is doubtful whether we can achieve a political reorganization unless it happens in a flash, but considering that the unification of Roh Moo-hyun and Chung Mong-joon and its breakup during the 2002 presidential election took only half a day, it may not be impossible.

The big tent theory is less about its success and more about how much 'anti-Lee Jae-myung energy' can be gathered in the process and poured out at the actual polling place. Many people who voted for Yoon Seok-yeol in the last presidential election because 'they disliked Lee Jae-myung' are likely to abstain from voting for the People Power Party's presidential candidate, who is not even new, in this election, but if Han Duck-soo steps in as an alternative, a 'Yoon Seok-yeol voting reproduction' phenomenon may occur (Han Duck-soo's character verification is considered separately in this context).

Currently, the Kyunghyang Shinmun has started pumping up the Han Duck-soo's ambition with an exclusive article titled "Han Duck-soo's side seeks logic to counter 'Ban Ki-moon Season 2'...Weight shifts towards presidential candidacy," and outside the arena, a 'Han Duck-soo Promotion Committee' is also being formed, so there is a possibility that the Han Duck-soo candidacy theory will rapidly erupt in a few days. And if Kim Moon-soo responds by becoming the People Power Party's presidential candidate, there is no guarantee that a big tent will not be set up.

For former representative Lee Jae-myung, he can expect a 'smooth victory' if conservative candidates are rampant (including Lee Jun-seok's New Reform Party presidential candidate) or if a candidate who refuses to unite with acting leader Han Duck-soo runs in the election until the end. However, if the drama of unification negotiations and Lee Nak-yeon joining in after Kim Moon-soo's presidential candidate ascension and Han Duck-soo's resignation penetrates the presidential phase as a 'anti-Lee Jae-myung alliance front political reorganization', former representative Lee cannot simply shout 'policy'.

But, no matter how much those conservatives talk about unifying or reorganizing the political landscape, do they have the ability to overcome Lee Jae-myung's capabilities, such as his experience in state administration or his extensive knowledge and understanding of policy?