단상斷想

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea (hereinafter Lee Jae-myung), finally embarked on his journey on April 9th. He announced his intention to resign from his position as leader after presiding over the Democratic Party's Supreme Council meeting that day, effectively formalizing his early presidential election bid. Lee Jae-myung also changed his YouTube channel greeting to 'Thank you to the people who have been with us. A new path towards a great Republic of Korea, I will walk with you,' solidifying his will to run for president.

Now it begins. Lee Jae-myung has overcome almost all the mountains he had to climb since his defeat in the presidential election on March 9, 2022. From the controversy over the arrest of lawmakers to various judicial risks, the acquittal in the second trial of the Public Official Election Act, and even the impeachment of Yoon Seok-yeol, he has overcome all the 'legal' challenges and is finally embarking on his final journey.

In addition, on January 2, 2024, he was attacked with a weapon in Busan and almost lost his life. If it hadn't been for his shirt collar, his carotid artery would have been severed and he would have died instantly. Having overcome even this valley of death, Lee Jae-myung has emerged as one of the presidential candidates who has experienced the most twists and turns in Korean political history, and is standing before the last desperate testing ground.

Now, there is nothing to stop Lee Jae-myung. His presidential challenge has also been ‘legally’ suspended or ‘approved’ for the time being. There are no challengers within the party. He only needs to overcome the last hurdle, the wall of the presidency. However, no one knows at this point whether this wall will become a wall of joy or a wall of lamentation. According to opinion polls, if the presidential election were held right now, the title of president would be attached to Lee Jae-myung's name, but considering the unpredictability and dynamism of Korean politics, and unexpected variables, it is too early to applaud.

Of course, Lee Jae-myung is currently an absolute powerhouse and has a bandwagon effect, so it seems like there will be no 'rival'. In fact, it is hard to believe that it is a party whose president was impeached, and the People's Power, with as many as 20 people being named as presidential candidates, is a shipwreck on the verge of collapse, and it would not be strange if it were to be subject to a petition for dissolution of a political party to the Constitutional Court. Even if such a People's Power runner becomes a presidential candidate, anyone who is not a fool can know the result of whether they can properly win the public's mind.

Like this, all the energy of the universe is gathering around 'Lee Jae-myung'. Or, it seems that way. It seems like there are no rivals around. But politics is not such an easy 'creature'. Power is like sand in the palm of your hand; you think you have it, but before you know it, it all slips away to the bottom, in vain.

From now on, if Lee Jae-myung focuses on only one topic until June 3rd, it is the proposition that 'Lee Jae-myung's enemy is Lee Jae-myung'. All sorts of tricks and attempts to remove Lee Jae-myung have mostly failed. And now, if there is only one enemy left, it is 'Lee Jae-myung' himself.

In this presidential election, if there is an 'absolute ring' that Lee Jae-myung can use to overcome another enemy called Lee Jae-myung, it is to remove or dilute 'Lee Jae-myung phobia' as much as possible. In the last presidential election, 48.56% of voters supported Yoon Seok-yeol and 47.83% supported Lee Jae-myung. That famous 0.7% point. 247,077 people were missing.

Looking at this result, what percentage of votes did the conservative or moderate voters cast because they 'liked' Yoon Seok-yeol? If we consider the genuine conservative base to be 15-20%, more than half of Yoon Seok-yeol's votes should be seen as having reluctantly chosen Yoon Seok-yeol in order not to vote for Lee Jae-myung.

And what about in an early presidential election now? Just as the 'anti-Lee Jae-myung' votes flowed helplessly to Yoon Seok-yeol, in this upcoming June 3rd presidential election, voters who are still horrified by Lee Jae-myung will vote for 'him' no matter who the conservative candidate is.

In this regard, Lee Jae-myung's enemy is Lee Jae-myung. We must block and eliminate the widespread negative perceptions and atmosphere of aversion surrounding Lee Jae-myung as much as possible. Therefore, we must prevent the 'anti-Lee Jae-myung' votes from 'automatically' flowing to the conservative camp's candidate.

At the very least, they should prevent the further spread of 'Lee Jae-myung phobia' or appropriately manage the 'severity' of that hatred and anger. This presidential election must have 'Lee Jae-myung phobia dilution operation' as its main strategy. Once an anti is always an anti. They will never come to Lee Jae-myung. Rather, that sentiment is closer to an 'automatic inflow vote' that the conservative camp simply eats. In this presidential election, we must prevent votes from flowing to conservative candidates as naturally as possible.

That doesn't mean we can change Lee Jae-myung's 'personality'. Lee Jae-myung is Lee Jae-myung. Even if Lee Jae-myung changed, votes from the conservative or centrist camps probably wouldn't come. It is an irreversible sentiment, but we must prevent the anger and hatred from going to the conservative candidate as a windfall vote as much as possible.

The only 'oil film remover' that can remove the unprecedented 'anti-Lee Jae-myung' image that has been formed for a long time since Lee Jae-myung entered the central political arena is integration and dedication. Lee Jae-myung is an absolute powerhouse now. If a strong person wears the armor of embracement and tolerance, he is invincible. Lee Jae-myung is currently significantly lacking in the will or practice of embracing and tolerance. The upcoming campaign committee must be armed with embracing and tolerance and be reborn as a complete integration.

I recently met a close aide to a person who held a high-ranking position during the Moon Jae-in administration. He is already worried about 'Lee Jae-myung's solo run' and urges that the strengths of the Moon Jae-in government be inherited in the economy and diplomacy to enhance competitiveness. Otherwise, he worried that the government might fall into an early lame duck situation after its inauguration.

Even if it is not such a political condition, the only way to uniquely re-examine human Lee Jae-myung is through integrated actions in the presidential election. Lee Jae-myung may complain that he cannot use people as he pleases because pro-Lee Jae-myung figures check and exclude 'non-faction' talents.

In fact, when I look at several pro-Lee Jae-myung figures I know, they are all hard-line and exclusive. Those who do not share the same 'lineage' as them or who did not suffer together in difficult times are not seen as 'our people'. No matter how capable or virtuous they are, they never try to bring 'enemies' to their side.

This is partly because they are afraid of losing their jobs, but pro-Lee Jae-myung figures in particular tend to be exclusive of 'others' and unconditionally keep them at a distance. If you dismiss this as my biased and skewed impression, I can't help it, but if there are any pro-Lee Jae-myung figures who care about Lee Jae-myung even a little, I believe they will be aware of the problem.

To defeat Lee Jae-myung, who is Lee Jae-myung's enemy, you need to be creative. We must accurately review the defeat in the last presidential election and completely revise the existing strategy. Lee Hoi-chang's two consecutive presidential defeats were also a natural result of the prevailing trend, arrogance, and exclusive personality.

In this regard, if the presidential election is held with the current personnel composition, it may be another 'must-lose'. If the existing members truly care about Lee Jae-myung, they must abandon the selfish idea that "we do the hard work and the recruited faction eats the fruit." Only with such patience and self-control can the overall pie grow and more people can share it.

Lee Jae-myung's enemy is Lee Jae-myung, and the only 'spear' that can subdue that enemy is unity. And another 'shield' is inclusiveness and tolerance. In addition to this, it would be ideal to have three 'detailed battle instructions'. First, a tiger does its best even when catching a rabbit. Second, you must do everything you can and use all means and methods to play a game without regrets, to the point where you think countless times a day, "Do I have to go this far?" Third, you must fight tenaciously with the spirit of Yukchamgoldan (肉斬骨斷), which means you have to give up your arm to take your opponent's neck.

Rumors are already circulating about positions in Lee Jae-myung's camp. Victory is in sight, so everyone must be excited. However, if Democratic Party lawmakers or aides take the "Lee Jae-myung trend" for granted, voter sentiment will inevitably loosen in the election race. A camp without tension is also affected by the decline in the cohesiveness of supporters, leading to a strategy of only winning 'easily' and potentially facing greater setbacks. 

If the "Lee Jae-myung is the only choice for president" sentiment becomes entrenched in the Democratic Party, it is not easy to firmly fix the support base, no matter how hard the campaign tries to control it. Crisis and tension must constantly erupt from within for the public sentiment to become more solid.

If you start thinking that you have already won, the election will enter an unpredictable phase. Moreover, the People Power Party will unite as one with the mindset that they have nothing to lose by fielding a single conservative candidate. The embers of the insurrection have not yet been completely extinguished.

To win, Lee Jae-myung must overcome Lee Jae-myung. It looks easy, but Lee Hoi-chang has already shown twice that it is by no means a simple problem. He must first get rid of those who are busy 'sucking Lee Jae-myung's blood' and then move boldly into the sea of ​​integration.